Valuation Cash Flow Uncertainties in Real Estate Development Projects with Desicion Tree Analysis

Ba�do�an, Serhat; �nel, Hakk�

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Valuation Cash Flow Uncertainties in Real Estate Development Projects with Desicion Tree Analysis [Megaron]

Megaron. 2013; 8(3): 149-164 | DOI: 10.5505/megaron.2013.46855

Valuation Cash Flow Uncertainties in Real Estate Development Projects with Desicion Tree Analysis

Serhat Ba�do�an, Hakk� �nel
Yildiz Technical University, Department Of Architecture, Istanbul, Turkey

With the rapid development of real estate markets under globalization and exponential competitive market conditions, risk evaluation has been one of the most important tasks in the process of real estate investment valuation. This paper describes the relationship between construction permit uncertainties and real estate development projects by using the Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) approach. Expected Value (EV) criterion for an office development project proposed and incorporated into conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis which are determined by DTA. This will help utility function to come closer to the real world, so that decision making and risk analysis can be done based on the real and possible data providing better conditions for investors. The results are consistent with the results calculated by conventional DCF analysis. However research demonstrates that is of application DTA obviate the deficiencies of conventional DCF analysis under construction permit delays and scheduling uncertainties. Results also emphasize the importance of applying EV and DTA for the construction permit delays generate a significant change in NPV of real estate development projects.

Keywords: Real Estate Development, Valuation, Decision Tree Analysis, Expected Value

Gayrimenkul Geli�tirme Projelerinde Nakit Ak��lar�ndaki Belirsizliklerin Karar A�ac� Analizi ile De�erlendirilmesi

Serhat Ba�do�an, Hakk� �nel
Y�ld�z Teknik �niversitesi, Mimarl�k B�l�m�, �stanbul

K�reselle�me s�recinde h�zla geli�en gayrimenkul piyasalar� ve artan rekabet�i piyasa ko�ullar� ile risklerin de�erlendirilmesi, gayrimenkul yat�r�m de�erleme s�recinin en �nemli hedefi haline gelmi�tir. Bu makale in�aat izinlerinden kaynaklanan gecikmeler ve gayrimenkul geli�tirme projelerinin ili�kilerini Karar A�ac� Analizi (KAA) ile a��klamaktad�r. Beklenen De�er (BD) kriteri geleneksel �ndirgenmi� Nakit Ak�� (�NA) y�ntemine dahil edilerek ve KAA ile ifade edilmi�tir. Bu yat�r�m kararlar�n�n ger�ek d�nyaya daha yak�n olmas�na yard�mc� olacak bir fayda sa�layarak daha iyi �artlarda karar alma ve risk analizi imkanlar�n� sa�layacakt�r. Sonu�ta elde edilen de�erler geleneksel NBD y�ntemleri ile tutarl�l�k g�stermektedir. Ancak ara�t�rma sonu�lar� geleneksel NBD y�nteminin in�aat s�relerindeki gecikmeler ve zamanlama gibi belirsizlikler ile ilgili eksikliklerini KAA ile giderilebildi�ini g�stermi�tir. Bunlara ek olarak BD ve KAA'nin uygulanmas� ile elde edilen sonu�lar�n, in�aat izinlerindeki gecikmelerin gayrimenkul geli�tirme projelerinin NBD'lerinde belirgin miktarda de�i�iklik yaratt��n� vurgulam��t�r.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Gayrimenkul Geli�tirme, De�erleme, Karar A�ac� Analizi, Beklenen De�er

Serhat Ba�do�an, Hakk� �nel. Valuation Cash Flow Uncertainties in Real Estate Development Projects with Desicion Tree Analysis. Megaron. 2013; 8(3): 149-164

Corresponding Author: Serhat Ba�do�an, T�rkiye

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