Regional Employment Volatility−Causes and Consequences: The Case of Turkey

Regional employment volatility is a phenomenon describing the strongly fluctuating patterns of employment. In the extant literature, far little attention has been devoted to understanding the causes and consequences of this phenomenon in developing countries. The present study aims to analyze the cross-regional determinants of employment volatility in Turkey. We use a range of panel data regression methods (Random Effects and OLS) and adopt employment data and various other explanatory variables for NUTS-II regions over the period 2004�2013. Our analyses indicate two main results: first, there are sizable cross-regional differences in employment volatility, and second, the volatility of a region is mostly related to demographic and market-size characteristics. Hence, regions with a high rate of labor market participation moderated growth rates and the ones constituting greater market areas experienced a relatively smooth employment pattern and, thus, enjoy a stable economy.

Keywords: Employment volatility, panel regression, random effect.

B�lgesel �stihdam Dalgalanmalar�n�n �iddeti, Sebep ve Sonu�lar�: T�rkiye �rne�i

Hasan Engin Duran
�zmir Y�ksek Teknoloji Enstit�s�, �zmir

�ktisadi �dalgalanma derecesi� veya di�er bir deyi�le �oynakl�k� (volatilite) s�k ve �iddetli dalgalanan bir ekonomik yap�y� tan�mlar. G�n�m�ze kadar olan s�re�te, b�lge planlama ve iktisat literat�r�nde bu hususta ara�t�rmalar yap�lm�� olsa da, istihdam dalgalanmalar�n�n neden ve sonu�lar�na, �zellikle co�raf da��l�m�na ve b�lgeler aras� farkl�l�klar�na �ok az de�inilmi�tir. Bu �al��man�n amac� T�rkiye�deki istihdam dalgalanmalar�n�n sebeplerini ara�t�rmak ve b�lgeler aras�nda olu�an farkl� dinamikleri ortaya ��karmakt�r. Di�er bir de�i�le, istihdam bak�m�ndan �lkemizinin hangi b�lgeleri daha istikrarl�d�r veya daha az �iddetli dalgalanmalara maruz kalmaktad�r? Bu durumun alt�nda yatan sebepler nelerdir? Bu sorular, T��K�in tan�mlad�� 26 D�zey-2 istatistiki b�lge ve 2004-2013 d�nemi i�in ara�t�r�lm��t�r. Y�ntem olarak, de�i�ik panel regresyonlar� (Rassal Etki ve En K��k Kareler y�ntemi) ve zaman serisi metotlar� kullan�lm��t�r. Yap�lan ampirik analizler sonucu iki temel bulgu elde edilmi�tir. Birincisi, b�lgeler aras�nda istihdam dalgalanma derecelerinin ciddi bir farkl�la�ma g�sterdi�idir. �kincisi ise, bu durumun alt�nda yatan fakt�rlerin �ok�a demografik ve piyasa b�y�kl�� ile ili�kili oldu�udur. �yle ki, i�g�c�ne kat�l�m�n y�ksek oldu�u b�lgeler, n�fus ve istihdam bak�m�ndan b�y�k olan b�lgeler ve ekonomik b�y�me h�z� �l�ml� �ortalama-seviyede� olan b�lgeler, daha istikrarl� bir istihdam g�r�nt�s� �izmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: �stihdam oynakl��, panel regresyon, rassan etkiler.

Hasan Engin Duran. Regional Employment Volatility−Causes and Consequences: The Case of Turkey. Megaron. 2017; 12(2): 280-291

Corresponding Author: Hasan Engin Duran, T�rkiye

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