The heat preparedness gap: Bridging urban heat risk and municipal heat governance

Extreme heat is emerging as one of the most critical climate-related challenges facing cities, yet whether municipal planning systems are adequately prepared for local heat risks remains poorly understood. Existing studies predominantly assess either urban heat risk or climate adaptation planning, while the relationship between heat risk and municipal preparedness has received limited attention. To address this gap, this study introduces the Heat Preparedness Gap (HPG), defined as the mismatch between urban heat risk and the preparedness capacity of municipal planning systems. An integrated assessment framework was applied to 21 metropolitan municipalities with publicly available strategic climate plans in Türkiye. A Heat Preparedness Index (HPI) was developed through the evaluation of six preparedness domains, while a multidimensional Heat Risk Index (HRI) was constructed by integrating indicators of heat exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The relationship between HPI and HRI was subsequently evaluated through the HPG and a Heat Risk–Preparedness Matrix. The analysis identified four distinct preparedness profiles, demonstrating that municipalities facing comparable levels of heat risk often exhibit markedly different preparedness capacities. The findings further reveal that preparedness is not closely aligned with climatic exposure alone and varies substantially across different planning and governance contexts. Although heat-related issues are increasingly incorporated into municipal planning, operational heat management—including Heat Action Plans, heat-health early warning systems, and targeted protection for vulnerable populations—remains consistently underdeveloped. The proposed framework provides a transferable approach for benchmarking municipal preparedness, identifying adaptation priorities, and strengthening operational heat governance.

Keywords: Climate adaptation, heat action planning, heat governance, Türkiye, urban heat management.