Spatio-temporal change of the morphology in west corridor development region of Ankara city and 2022-2039 growth estimation

The land is needed for many activities in cities due to rapid urbanization and population growth taking place on a global scale. In order to meet the demands of the increasing population, cities grow towards extensive rural lands and try to meet the citizens' needs for land spatially used for housing, transportation, industrial facilities, and education facilities. The change in urban morphology is one of the most discussed topics in planning from the past to the present, consisting of uniquely complex phenomena. The traditional method of urban science offers approaches based on Euclidean geometry, based on the assumption of uniform growth. However, urban morphology has a multidimensional fractal structure, and it is insufficient to understand the city as a living organism that evolves, changes, and develops very quickly. Since urban growth and expansion are an inevitable reality intertwined with economic growth, spatial changes in cities as living organisms are inevitable. Population growth worldwide is
one of the most critical parameters affecting cities' growth. Unplanned growth in cities causes many environmental problems, such as unplanned urbanization. Monitoring and forecasting land changes in urban growth and expansion processes are significant in producing effective regional and urban planning policies. In this process, the concept of urban morphology comes to the fore. In this context, the fractal dimension analysis emerges as a technique of interest. Decreases and increases in fractal values gain meaning by being associated with processes such
as expansion and growth observed in cities. Fractal geometry, on the other hand, provides the opportunity to evaluate this complex structure quantitatively. At the same time, it offers a new mathematical framework for describing urban morphology. The study aimed to investigate the development process of the development zone in the western corridor of Ankara, with a fractal analysis to be made at the urban scale through its morphological change. The temporal
changes in urban form and texture between 2005-2022 and the morphological character of Ankara are questioned through fractal analysis. The study was carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the western corridor of Ankara was analyzed on an urban scale, and the morphological change in 2039 was estimated within the scope of two different scenarios. The compact growing scenario (GC) proposes a growth model within the boundaries of the
determined area. The spreading-growing scenario (GS) assumes a spreading-growth behavior into the land cover, regardless of field boundaries. The GC scenario defines areas where growth will not occur outside the determined western development zone. On the other hand, the GS covers the growth areas produced by assuming that the entire urban geography is suitable for settlement without any restrictions. After defining the scenarios, fractal blots from 2005, 2013, 2022, and 2039 were obtained, and fractal analysis was carried out using the box-counting method. At the same time, it showed that urban spatial richness increased, as the value of 1.63 in 2005 reached 1.85 in GC and 1.98 in growing by GS in 2039. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that the changes in the fractal dimensions obtained at the urban scale, the West development corridor experienced a rapid urbanization process from 2005 to the present, and this process showed urban expansion in the east-west direction.
Increases in fractal dimensions also indicate an increase in the complexity of the urban fabric, in other words, spatial richness. The simulation results of the year 2039 using the Cellular Automata - Markov chain method also support these results. Compact and spreading growth approaches produced within the scope of the research resulted in different growth behaviors of the city. While the growth is more controlled in the model restricted by the research area
boundaries, the expansion pressure of the city is quite remarkable in the scenario where there is no restriction. The data obtained by this method for West Ankara, which is determined as the development direction of the city with the plan decisions, has significant potential in evaluating the current situation and future spatial patterns. Therefore, the research offers a new perspective to describe the complexity of the urban system. In addition, it is thought to
have a guiding quality in the planning processes. The research offers a current perspective and innovation with a scenario-based model based on fractal geometry to describe the complexity of urban morphology.